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Global Economy

Can the Index Continue Its 125K Journey?

In the next period, in terms of pricing, every development related to the virus will be critical, on the other hand, it will be important for the continuation of this rise in the details of the country’s dynamics.

All kinds of actions on the political front are closely watched and the risks we left behind in terms of geopolitical still continue to be on the table. While a definitive solution has not yet been found for a vaccine or treatment for the virus, an increase in cases brought about by the opening of the economy is also on the agenda.

In other words, the period we live in is so complex that sectoral differences and pricing often show themselves. As the flights started as a result of the contacts with Russia two days ago, the perspective on the tourism and aviation sector turned positive with the effect of the news. Therefore, as every political development is important, contacts with countries in the virus environment become so meaningful.

When we examine the index from a technical point of view, it is observed that it maintains the movement within the ascending channel. However, with the resistance of 120,000, it opened the door to an important level. If 120 thousand cannot be exceeded in the movement in this channel, we can talk about a double top formation. This situation tells us how important the support level of 114 thousand 900 in the index is. So, is the environment suitable for an upward pricing?

If we examine only domestically, it seems likely that the index will test the resistance of 125 thousand, although we find the movement above 120,000 reasonable. When we include the MACD and RSI indicators in this technical view, it is worth adding that although the RSI has confirmed its upward movement, the MACD has lost momentum. Therefore, when we add two different technical indicators to these two technical indicators, there is a movement that has come to the overbought region. In other words, we can say that the area that can go for the upward purchase of the index remains, albeit limited. The factors that will be effective in the process of this movement are;

  • Increasing tension between the USA and China
  • Negativity in Turkey and Foreign Relations
  • Risky increase in the number of cases worldwide
    *Delaying the vaccine forward contrary to the given dates
    *The slowdown in the acceleration of the recovery in economic data

In other words, it is possible to say that these developments may cause a correction in the index or suppress the movement. In the positive scenario, it can be said that the movement towards the 125 thousand region can be experienced especially with the start of the second quarter balance sheets. As a result, while the balance sheet pricing for the second quarter was made long before, the future evaluations of the companies after the announced balance sheets and possible contingency plans against risks may be important for a new story in pricing. Therefore, while our short-term technical resistances will be 120.200-121.400 in the index, we will be watching the levels below 117.400-115.900 closely. It will be a more determined investment process for investors to evaluate their strategies by sectoral evaluation after the balance sheets and by highlighting the sectors and companies that are believed to have growth potential.

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