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Global Economy

US inflation significantly higher than expected

In the United States, the rate of inflation for goods and services rose surprisingly sharply to 9.1 percent in June from 8.6 percent in May, the Labor Department said. That was the highest level since December 1981. Experts polled by Reuters had only expected 8.8 percent.

Material bottlenecks and increased energy costs, also as a result of the Ukraine war, are causing strong price pressure in the USA. "There is still far too much pressure in the inflation pipeline," commented Bastian Hepperle from Hauck Aufhäuser Lampe Privatbank. "Therefore, the risk remains high that this was not the last summit this year. A small ray of hope is that the core inflation rate has fallen slightly for the third time in a row. At 5.9 percent, however, it is still far too high, so that the US Federal Reserve will raise its interest rate range again sharply on July 27." When calculating the core inflation rate, changes in the price of energy and food are excluded.

Euro hits a new low

On the foreign exchange market, the euro once again came under pressure against the US dollar. The rate fell below one dollar for the first time since December 2002 and briefly stood at $0.9998.

Because with these inflation figures, the probability has increased that the interest rate differential between the US and the euro area will be even larger than previously expected. For the USA, the so-called "Fed Watch Tool" of the US futures exchange CME indicates that the US Federal Reserve will raise the key interest rate by at least 0.75 points into the range of 2.25 to 2.50 percent at its next meeting at the end of July will raise. Even a very large step by a full percentage point is now considered to have a probability of around one third. A key interest rate in a range of 3.50 to 3.75 percent is then even expected for December. The values are derived from stock exchange transactions already entered into by market participants on the US futures exchange CME.

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