Lively life in the pedestrian zone, full shops: still nowhere to be found. Sure, the storm put many off shopping, but the reasons run much deeper. Consumers remain unsettled – this can be read from the GfK index of the Nuremberg consumer researchers. The index for March fell – to minus 8.1 points.
Relaxation in terms of Corona
Omicron and the high inflation spoiled the mood, says Michael Heise from HQ-Trust. "Consumers had to experience quite a bit of stress, even in the first few weeks of the year. The fourth Omicron wave was certainly a reason for uncertainty," he states. But the inflation rate was probably even more important. The consumer price development has withdrawn purchasing power.
At least with a view to the Corona crisis, there is some all-clear, the incidences are declining slightly. But much more important: The biggest restrictions should fall in just under four weeks. Is that finally fueling consumer sentiment? "Yes, of course it's the service sectors in particular where you had to hold back, but also stationary retail. Certainly, you can harbor one or the other hope that consumption will pick up there again," believes the chief economist at Swiss Bank Julius Baer, David Kohl.
"If it wasn't for Ukraine…"
But there can be no talk of unleashing it – this is being prevented above all by high inflation. In the euro zone, prices are rising at a record pace: in January the rate was 5.1 percent. Consumers perceive the increase even more strongly. The perceived inflation rate is even 8.5 percent because food has become significantly more expensive, service providers are demanding more and because energy prices have risen significantly. The Russia-Ukraine conflict is exacerbating the situation, says Jörg Kramer, chief economist at Commerzbank. "If it weren't for Ukraine, I would say a very, very strong upswing is about to start. But we don't know how the crisis is developing, we don't know whether the Russians are turning off the gas tap or not."
Federal Economics Minister Robert Habeck (Greens) has already warned of higher gas prices, so even less remains in the wallet. However, the federal government has also promised relief for citizens – urgently needed, says Julius Baer chief economist Kohl: "Relief, especially for low incomes, is important in order to keep the consumption contribution to economic development stable."
Still hope for recovery
Because consumers are a very important stability factor for the German economy. And there is still great hope for a recovery: the labor market is stable and wages are likely to rise. Just today, the government decided on a minimum wage of twelve euros. Added to this is the enormous savings capital, says HQ Trust expert Heise. "In this respect, consumers can cope with a certain increase in inflation because a certain savings potential is available."
The wealth of Germans has grown to 7.7 trillion euros – a record. But it is distributed unequally, and the high inflation and the high energy prices hit the poorer classes much harder – but the middle class is also being burdened more and more. Not a good prerequisite for careless consumption.
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